Coronavirus death rate: what are the chances of death?
Coronavirus death rate: Scientific advisers to the UK government believe that the chances of dying from coronavirus infection range from 0.5% to 1%.
This is lower than the confirmed death rate – 4% globally in WHO numbers and 5% in the UK as of March 23 – because not all cases have been confirmed by the test.
Each country has its own method of deciding who is being evaluated, so comparing case numbers or virtual death rates across countries can also be misleading.
Coronavirus death rate also depends on a combination of factors such as your age, general health, and the care you can receive.
What are the risks for people like me?
The elderly and the sick are more likely to die if infected with the coronavirus.
Current estimates from Imperial College London indicate that Coronavirus death rate is almost ten times higher than the average for those over 80 years of age and much less for those under 40.
The UK’s chief medical advisor, Professor Chris Whitetti, says that while the rates are higher for the elderly, “the vast majority of the elderly will have a mild or moderate illness.”
He also warns that it should not be considered a trivial infection for young adults, noting that there are some young people who have ended up in intensive care.
It is not just age that determines the risk of infection.
In China’s first major analysis of more than 44,000 cases, deaths were at least five times more common among confirmed cases of diabetes, high blood pressure, or heart or respiratory problems.
All of these factors interact with each other and we still do not have a complete picture of the risks for each type of person in each location.
While Coronavirus death rate patterns can tell us among confirmed cases who are most at risk, they cannot tell us about the exact risk in one group.
The confirmed mortality rate is not the total mortality rate
Most cases of most viruses are innumerable because people tend not to see a doctor with mild symptoms.
On March 17, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, estimated that there were around 55,000 cases in the UK when the number of confirmed cases was just under 2,000.
Dividing deaths by the year 2000 will give you a much higher death rate than dividing 55,000.
This is one of the main reasons why mortality among confirmed cases is a poor estimate of actual mortality: the severity of missing cases.
But you can also go wrong in the other direction: Reduce Coronavirus death rate by not looking at those who are currently infected and who may eventually die.
Why do death rates differ between countries?
According to an investigation conducted by Imperial College, the reason for this is that different countries are better or worse for detecting milder and more difficult cases to count.
Countries use different virus tests, have different testing capabilities, and different rules for those to be tested. All of these factors change over time.
The UK government plans to increase the tests to 10,000 per day initially, with a goal of 25,000 per day in four weeks. Currently, tests are mainly restricted to people in hospitals.
Germany has a daily testing capacity of more than 20,000 cases and people with mild symptoms have been evaluated.
Therefore, their confirmed numbers can pick up different sections of the case pyramid shown above.
The death rate among confirmed cases in Germany (less than half a percent) is among the lowest in Europe but is expected to increase as the mixture of patients undergoing the test changes.
Your diagnosis also depends on the treatment available and whether the health service is able to provide it.
This in turn depends on the epidemic stage.
If the health system is flooded with conditions and the intensive care units cannot treat the people who need ventilation, the death rate will increase.
How do scientists calculate the real death rate?
Scientists combine individual tests for each of these questions to build a death rate picture.
For example, they estimate the percentage of cases with mild symptoms for specific small groups of people who are closely monitored, such as those on return trips.
But slightly different responses from these specific tests will add to big changes in the big picture.
The evidence will change over time.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, notes that death rates may decrease or rise.
“With Ebola, they have decreased over time as people improve treatment for the disease,” but they can also increase: “If the health system overflows, we are seeing an increase in death rate.”
So scientists give a higher and lower number, in addition to a better current estimate.